Big Ten Preview

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All-Big Ten Fantasy Team 2001:  GO

For more on these teams, see the 2000 Fantasy Info below.

For Big Ten schedule in 2000: GO   |   For All-Big Ten Fantasy Team 2000:  GO

Team Breakdowns:

Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Michigan | Michigan State |  Minnesota  

Northwestern | Ohio St  |  Penn State  | Purdue | Wisconsin

Big Ten in 2000

All we have to say at the start of this Big Te(leve)n Preseason Review is, we know we're shooting high.  Saying that someone -- anyone, for that matter -- is going to win out their Big Ten schedule is a bit crazy.  Yet, there it is.  We say it right below, under the heading "Wisconsin Badgers."  

Now before you go telling everyone what fools we are (and writing us to remind us that we had Arizona pegged for a great year in '99 -- we've been beaten up for that one these past 11 months) just take a look at our reasoning for that call.  Then, if you still think we're nuts, all right.  We can take it. 

The 2000 season for the Big Ten is going to be one of their best.  Several teams come back stronger than usual -- like Illinois and Purdue -- while the usual suspects at the top continue to field strong teams -- the Buckeyes, Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Badgers.  The schedule is in the favor of the Illini, with no Wisconsin game and two of their toughest games -- OSU and Michigan -- at home.  OSU and Penn State look to be rebuilding this year, but are still strong enough to post a win or two against the conference elite.  Everyone should come away with at least one loss, except for Wisconsin, we think.  Too much talent on that team.  

It looks like a 7 or 8 bowl-team year for the conference, as Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, OSU, PSU, and Purdue seem to be locks to play this December or January, with MSU and Minnesota looking at 6 win seasons as well.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Any time a team returns 10 of their 11 starters on offense, you have to give them a look for the potential to have a better season.  When the offense in question was very good last year, even record-breaking, you have to give them a serious look for having an explosive year on that side of the ball. When the defense that returns is manned by quality players and the non-starters look to be well prepared to step into their starting roles, you have to give that team a serious look for conference title potential.  Add in a somewhat favorable schedule, and you have no choice but to put them up there in the mix at the top of the conference.

This, in a nutshell, is Illinois.  Last year's high powered offense returns just about everyone, and the key components all come back -- the entire OL, QB Kittner, RB Harvey, and a great group of receivers.  Expect more of the same out of these guys.  No, they won't surprise anyone this season, but to say that they did so well last year because coaches and players in the Big Ten took them lightly is to mistake the nature of the game today.  No one takes a week off from planning for a team in their conference, and the Illini earned everything they got last year.  And they'll earn plenty of yards this year, as well.

Defensively they lose a ton to graduation.  One bright spot is they get DB Bobby Jackson back from injury (he sat out '99).  So you can add him in as an uncounted returning starter.  Still, though, half of the DL is gone, and much of the LB crew and secondary.  People have to step up and make their presence known in those positions before you can talk about Big Ten run for these guys.  The DL needs guys like returning Brandon Moore to take the lead and produce.  The LB corps has the returning Michael Young to lead them, and enough of a supporting cast to project good things from that group.  Overall, they get a 'C' grade, with a chance to better that by gaining good experience through the early schedule.  Look out Blue Raiders and Aztecs, and the rebuilding Bears.

You always hesitate to project a team that had a surprise season last year as a conference winner the next.  You want to see some consistency before you go out on a limb that far.  Especially in the Big Ten, a conference that is notorious for crushing the hopes of Cinderella teams.  But these guys were hard not to get behind.  We see few weaknesses on offense; they have a yet unproven defense, though, and that was enough to project a great conference record of 6-2.  (We think they'll lose to either Michigan or Ohio State at home, and Penn State or Michigan State on the road.)  They'll win out in non-conference games, so a 9-2 year looks like the near future for the Illini.

To see what we said about Illinois in the spring, click here:  GO

Indiana Hoosiers

Who can say what's going to happen with these guys?  Will the offense do it again, and put up several 3- and 4-TD games?  And will the defense improve enough to cash in on some of those games for 'W's?  Well, we don't pretend to know.  All we can say is they will get better on offense and defense, largely on the basis of returning starters and gained confidence in both units.

Randle El and the offense will be better, and that bodes well for the Hoosiers.  If the coaching staff comes up with more wrinkles to get Randle El the ball -- or some running room -- more often than last year, the yardage will come. The big question will be how much room will he and the rest of the team get.  The OL lost a good amount of talent, and will have to improve quickly to help Indiana make good on the promises of its offensive potential.   Aside from Randle El, the backfield gets RB Levron Williams back, and he'll be better the second time around, too.  The receiving corps is good, led by Versie Gaddis.  

Defense is the big question here in Indiana.  To be honest, they weren't very good last year, so returning much of that talent isn't necessarily a good thing.  They could use some impact from experienced JUCO transfers and the like, but not a lot of help seems to be coming.  They will have to develop ways to use the personnel they have, and hope that a few of the guys have spent the spring getting bigger and faster.  

We can't see the Hoosiers coming out of a brutal Big Ten schedule in 2000 with more than 2 wins. Non-conference games are very tough as well, with Kentucky, NC State and Cinci, all good teams.  If they can pull out two of those games, they'll repeat last year's 4-7 season.  

To see what we said about the Hoosiers in the spring, click here:  GO

Iowa Hawkeyes 

This will be another long year for the Hawkeyes and their fans.  It will feel shorter if they find a QB and an OL, but that doesn't seem to be on the immediate horizon at this point.  If and when they do, they have the receivers to get the ball to, led by Kahlil Hill, and a great back to run through the holes they make in Ladell Betts.  But if there are no holes, not even the best back will get enough yards on his own to win many games.  And a wide open receiver can't get the ball if his QB is on the turf.

Defensively Iowa returns 6 players but really has no commitments to many of them.  The coaches are still looking for the best athletes to step up and take the jobs.  If summer goes better than expected, and a few players take the lead and seize the opportunity, the unit could be much better better than expected.  Huge "ifs" though.  As it stands, we have to be conservative in our call with these guys and say one Big Ten win (probably against Northwestern at home) and one non-conference win (although Western Michigan and Iowa State could both take the win).

To see what we said about Iowa in the spring, click here:  GO

Michigan Wolverines

Initially we dropped the Wolverines a bit in our Big Ten forecast, based mostly on lost talent and the questions surrounding QB Drew Henson.  Upon further review, we see a team that has a shot at replacing the production of departed QB Tom Brady, that gets their best weapons-- RB Anthony Thomas and WR David Terrell -- back, and has a huge left side of the offensive line to run behind and buy time to throw behind.  Plus, a defense that looked quite suspect in the spring appears to be coming together nicely, and with some fine tuning in the summer they may have a solid unit.  So we've moved them up a bit; but not higher than the Badgers, based mostly on questions on 'D.'

The offense is all Drew's this year, and he'll have a chance early to show what he's got.  The Wolverines tune up with Oklahoma State and Rice traveling to Michigan, and then there's that season-defining four game set: at UCLA and then at Illinois, then Wisconsin comes to UM and finally a trip to Purdue.  Ouch.  They don't even get a week off to relax in between.  After that's all over, we'll see where the Wolverines are in terms of talent and Big Ten competitiveness.  If they come out of that 4-game run with 3 wins they're in business; if one of those wins is against Wisconsin, they're in the driver's seat.

To achieve that, the offense has to produce, and big.  Henson has to develop into the star QB he thinks he is, and many hope he will be.  RB Thomas is already a star, and will take all-conference honors.  Ditto for Terrell, at WR.  If the other half of the line comes together to equal the strength of the left side's Backus and Hutchinson, everyone else's game will be elevated.

Defensively there are numerous questions.  The secondary returns everyone, but there were holes everywhere in their coverage last year.  Coach Carr has to get that unit back to the typical Wolverine level if he hopes to stop opponents from going over and around his front seven.  Speaking of front seven, there are some concerns there, as well.  The line loses almost everyone, and will be looking for new faces to take on old roles as stoppers.  The linebacking corps could use an influx of talent, too.  No one there seems ready to make a case for all-conference recognition, except perhaps Foote if he plays over his head.

An atypical preseason review of the Wolverines.  They look like a team that has enough questions to move them down a few slots, but their level of talent at certain spots, and tradition of playing much better than they look on paper moves them right back up toward the top.  Look for a loss to Wisconsin and a late one to the trio of State teams -- MSU, PSU, or OSU.

To see what we said about UM in the spring, click here:  GO

Michigan State Spartans

After a 10-2 season, Spartans fans have a lot to cheer about, and a lot to pine for.  Bad news is, there's no way the Spartans will repeat that output.  No way.

Aside from losing their receiving crew, especially the next NFL star wideout Plaxico Burress, State loses a good chunk of their defense and most of the rest of their offense.  They do get RB T. J. Duckett back, and that's a life saver.  He'll put up the numbers they need to compete in most games.  They get QB Ryan Van Dyke, which helps.  But without a solid crew of receivers even the most experienced QB will have trouble moving the ball.  Add in the fact that there was a coaching change, and a new system to learn, and you see the uphill battle the Spartans are facing.

Defense doesn't look much better.  Thornhill is the name to remember at LB, but beyond that the unit is most un-memorable.  The DL is hurting, and the secondary isn't much more solid.  Not a whole lot more to say here except, wait and see.  Wait and see who steps up to help their cause on defense.

As far as the season goes, it looks like a tough one for the Spartan faithful.  They could easily lose their first three games, with Marshall and Notre Dame coming to State and the Spartans traveling to play a decent Missouri team.  They won't, though.  But one win is likely.  Then, they'll win a couple of Big Ten games, before facing perhaps the toughest conference schedule this year -- all of the projected top six teams in the conference.  If they pull out two wins there, we're surprised.  So, it looks like a 3-5 Big Ten season, and a 5-6 overall unless they play better than expected early on (or ruin the plans of a team or two in conference).

To see what we said about the Spartans in the spring, click here:  GO

Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophers lose a ton of talent from that 8-4 team of '99, and will have to get big production out of their replacements to get anywhere near that mark.  Like the 6 wins they'll need to qualify for a bowl game in December.  

We like freshman RB Thomas Tapeh, having waited for him to get some touches since his signing with the Gophers in '99.  If healthy, he'll do some nice things for Minnesota.  Likewise with fellow freshman, QB Assad Abdul-Khaliq.  We know less about him, but hear he has more potential than Tapeh.  A ringing endorsement if we've ever heard one, since Tapeh looks like he'll be phenomenal.  The backfield gets plenty of help from a monster OL, led by all-everything (except Playboy) Ben Hamilton.  Shouldn't be too much concern there, then.  

Defensively they have some holes, but not many.  they lose an all-American at DB, but seem to have enough coming up to be fine there again this year.  Maybe not the best in the conference again, but strong enough.  The front seven return some big players, with Keron Riley getting all the press thanks to a stellar spring.  

The team, as a whole, looks ready to shine, but there are enough questions to wonder about their success with this schedule. They start out with 3 non-conference games they should win, then get Purdue and Ohio State road games (likely losses) sandwiching Illinois and Penn State home games (also likely losses).  If they can come out of that stretch with some wins, the season could turn out fine.  if not, they'll have to pull out three wins in their last four games to be bowl eligible, which we think they'll do.

To see what we said about the Gophers in the spring, click here:  GO

Northwestern Wildcats  

These guys are fighting to return to the days when they could field a competitive Big Ten team without going light on the entrance requirements.  (See Duke, and Stanford; and no, we don't yet include Notre Dame in here, despite their desire to be excused of late because of those terribly difficult academic requirements...) 

The Wildcats have a better team this year than last, but it's hard to say how much better they will be, overall.  They get RB Anderson back, and if he can improve on his Big Ten-leading performance last season, the team may get to enjoy more victories in 2000.  The fact that he gets most of his blocking crew back will help a great deal, especially since there are stars in the making on that OL. The QB, whoever it ends up being, will benefit from the added protection as well, and may be able to translate additional time in the pocket and less secondary coverage (thanks to the threat of Anderson running) into a decent passing attack.  If this happens, the offense may well be on the upswing.  Of course, there are those big conditionals, again.

The Defense gets everyone back, but it isn't unfamiliar with the curse of the conditionals, either.  If the secondary can improve a great deal, and if the front seven can evolve into a unit that can put the needed pressure on opposing QBs, they will have a decent year.  If neither of these happens, all the returning starters in the world won't get the Wildcats into a winning season.

Since it looks like there are still more questions than answers, on the defense especially, and the schedule is brutal, we see another rough year for the Wildcats and their fans.  Better than last year, maybe, but not much if at all.  The non-conference schedule has Duke, again, but after that they get one of the best in the MAC, Northern Illinois, and the best in the WAC, TCU.  Neither will be easy.  After that, they have a Wisconsin/Michigan/Illinois/Purdue set of games that are likely losses, with a shot at going 3-1 in the remaining conference games.  A shot, that is.  So overall, it looks like a 2-6 Big Ten record is most likely, and 4-7 overall;  saying 5-6 is being optimistic, a winning season is something only their fans will be counting on.  but, as they say, that's why they play the season out.  Anything can happen on any Saturday.

To see what we said about Northwestern in the spring, click here:  GO

Ohio State Buckeyes   

We were as shocked as anyone last year with their 6-6 record.  Yes, we know they were reloading after losing quite a bit of talent, but .500?  Now, this year is a huge question mark.  With the rise of Illinois and Purdue, and UM and UW sitting atop the conference, it seems the best Ohio State can hope for is beating out PSU and MSU for fifth.  But that can't be; this is Ohio State, right?

Unfortunately for Buckeyes fans, it seems like that is, indeed, the case.  In 2000 at least.  We know they should get a lot better than last year, but we wonder if this is the wrong year to be trying to get back to the top.  It's so crowded up there.  If QB Bellisari and WR Rambo have anything to say about it, they'll be right in the mix, though.  They'll need help at RB, so someone has to step up and take the job -- and responsibility for the Buckeyes ground game.  If no one does, it'll be running by committee, which sometimes can but often can't work.  Of course, all those questions on the OL have to be answered, and the unit has to come out strong. 

Defensively it looks like more of the same from the front seven.  They'll be strong and should push for some of the members to get all-conference looks, like LB Jason Ott.  The secondary is still a concern, with losses there yet to be replaced satisfactorily.  The first few games this season should tell coaches where they're at in that respect.  

The whole team will be tested thanks to a rather difficult schedule.  They get a tough Fresno State and Miami (Ohio) team coming to State, and have to travel to Arizona in the non-conference portion of their schedule.   This could be 3 wins, or easily could see 2 losses.  Then it's Big Ten time.  They start with the one-two punch of Penn State and Wisconsin, then a couple of wins before meeting Purdue, Michigan and Illinois in three of the last four games.  If they play well early, they could come into that stretch at 3-1, and leave 6-2 in conference.  We think 5-3 is more likely.  We're also not sold on them beating AU in Arizona, so we think 7-4 is likely.

To see what we said about the Buckeyes in the spring, click here:  GO

Penn State Nittany Lions  

When the biggest questions coming into the season are, After which game will Joe become the all-time winningest coach? and How are you going to replace all that talent? you can't blame Penn State fans for focusing on the first one.  We're not sure they can answer both of them.  Joe will break the record this year, but we don't think they'll be able to replace most of those guys.

The defense lost the most, by far, with most of the defense now seeming to be playing for NFL teams this fall. They have replacements, though.  Penn State will always have replacements at LB and DL.  They will always have a decent defense.  Don't worry about that.  The line will be anchored by Kurpeikis and the LBs by Haynes.  You'll know their names by October.  The secondary is still up in the air, but looks better than expected coming into the summer workouts.

Offense is the more serious concern, now, though.  Thanks to QB Casey's off-field incident, that position has a huge asterisk next to it, at least until the legal system takes over and resolves Casey's fate one way or the other.  Joe Pa doesn't seem like he has any plans to limit Casey's role on the team until then.

To see what we said about Penn State in the spring, click here:  GO

Purdue Boilermakers  

Offensively everyone knows they have QB Drew Brees, one of the best in the nation.  What many don't realize is they also have one of the better receiving corps in the country.  Led by Vinny Sutherland and Tight End Tim Stratton, this group will get open, and often.  Brees will have plenty of targets to throw his nice touch passes to.  RB Montrell Lowe will benefit from the added effort defenses make to compensate for Brees and the passing game, plus the efficiency that the OL has in making their blocks against the usually bigger defensive linemen they face.  Scoring points will not be a problem for these guys.  

Defense is typically the weak point for the Boilermakers under Brees.  He and the offense score a lot, but the other team often scores more, and they lose.  This year, however, things could be different for Purdue.  There aren't many superstars on the squad, just a number of guys who look ready to play their role exceptionally well.  The pass rush should be quite good, with a strong and fast DL and LB corps.  The secondary may be the strong point for these guys, though, with speed at the corners and hitting ability at the safety spots.

The big story this year may be the "Drew for Heisman" campaign.  It may also be the "Purdue goes to the Roses" story.  Their biggest challenge early will be the trip to Notre Dame, and then to Penn State.  They could win both of these, and leave September 5-0.  Then they get to October, where they face off against the Badgers, Wolverines, and Buckeyes.  Getting out of there with 2 losses total would be a nice way to go into the home stretch, where they should win both of November's games.  At 6-2 in conference, they should be right there for Rose bowl contention if the Badgers get the invite to the National Championship game like we expect them to.  

To see what we said about Purdue in the spring, click here:  GO

Wisconsin Badgers  

Since they lost the nation's best RB in Ron Dayne, the offense should sputter this year.  And with the talent in the Big Ten growing to the best its seen in a while, the Badgers should be lucky to break even this year.  Right?  Well, not exactly.

In fact, the Wisconsin offense will likely be better this year, not worse, even devastated.  hey lose Dayne, but they have a capable if not Dayne-like replacement in Michael Bennett.  They get QB Brooks Bollinger back.  They get WR Chris Chambers back.  Oh, yeah, and they have the conference's (nation's?) best OL, led by the returning Costa/Ferrairo/Rabach combination.  They should do fine without Dayne, thank you very much.  

The defense isn't too shabby, either.  They have all-everything DB Jamar Fletcher, cited by many (including us) as the best defender in the conference, even country.  The LB crew is suspect, but shouldn't disappoint.  The DL is solid, with likely all-conference end Bryant leading them.  With the offense looking like a powerhouse, the defense shouldn't have to do too much to win many games, except keep teams in the low 20's.  Once teams get behind, they'll throw a lot, but to who?  You can't throw to Fletcher's side without risking appearing in that weekend's highlight reels -- in the wrong way.  

We looked, but couldn't find a very good reason why we shouldn't pick UW to win the conference.  They do play Michigan away, so advantage Wolverines; but the Badgers are a stronger offense than the Wolverines are a defense, and Wisconsin has a better defense than UM has an offense, so back to deuce.  We give the advantage to the team we think will come in 4-0, Wisconsin. After taking that UM game on the road, Wisconsin should be quite confident and ready to handle the Buckeyes and Boilermakers at home.  There's no Illinois or Penn State on the schedule, so they shouldn't lose any in conference.  It would be on to the Roses, if it weren't for the fact that they'll get an invite to the BCS title game.

To see what we said about the Badgers in the spring, click here:  GO