Army
Black Knights
'99
record:
4-7 |
Coach:
Todd Berry |
Returning
Starters:
10 (3 Off., 7 Def.) |
All right, we understand progress, but we are bummed. The Army
wishbone has gone the way of the Oklahoma wishbone, and is no more.
The tradition we love has lost another proponent. That Army/Navy
game this December is going to have a whole new look to it.
Coach Berry has come in to the Army job with new plans, and new hopes
for this team. They will go to a more conventional, two pronged
attack when they have the ball. And a more front-heavy, 4-4
defense.
The offense seems to have adjusted well to the changes. They get
only a few players back from last season's squad, but they include QB
Gerena, WR Thompson, and RB Wallace. Not a bad combination.
They'll need some more skill players to develop, but more importantly they
have to hope for a line to gel and move to the next level come game
time. No way to tell how good the offense will be -- we haven't seen
them run a play out of it yet. Fair to say that with returning
starters at the key spots, and good practices thus far this off-season,
they'll adjust well to the new scheme.
Defensively they have the opposite situation, only losing a few
starters. Their leader is at safety, in McNally, and that helps with
the new defense. The front eight will be led by LB Weaver and DE
Hurst. These guys should flourish in the new scheme, and it will all
depend on how Weaver and the CBs can handle being out on an island when it
comes time for pass coverage.
Their opening 6 games
could easily all be losses. Cincinnati and Memphis are
stronger teams this year, East Carolina is one of the best in conference, and B.C. are no pushovers. They get their best
chances for Wins in the final 5 games. Their best shots are at
NM State, home against Tulane and UAB, and trips to Louisville and
Navy.
It should be an exciting, but rough year ahead for the Knights.
Coach Berry will have the benefit of the 'new
guy' pardon for a few losses, but if he wants to start his career
at Army off on the right foot the Knights can't go 0-6 to begin the year, and they had better knock off the
Falcons or Middies.
To see what we said about Army in the spring, click here: GO
Cincinnati
Bearcats
'99
record:
3-8 |
Coach:
Rick Minter |
Returning
Starters:
18 (10 Off., 8 Def.) |
Getting back a talented QB like Kenner is one thing, but getting back
all but one starter on offense is quite another. (The bad news is,
that lost starter was superb RB Cooper.) These guys will be fine on
that side of the ball. They should improve on last year's
production, which was good enough to win a few games.
The defense was arguably the major reason for their only winning three
games last season. Good news on that front is the unit returns eight
of its own starters from '99, and they are expected to be one year of
experience better now. The line should be their strength, led by
Monds. The LBs look good in practice, and Evans should pile on a few
sacks this season coming from the outside spot. The DBs are a
concern.
The team as a whole played its youth last year, and it should pay off
in the coming season. They'll need to be ready early, as the
Bearcats play Army right away, who are also looking to improve last year's
mark, then get Syracuse in town and face a Wisconsin team that will be
looking to make up for last year's embarrassment. They need a win
out of these three. Then it's road trips to Indiana and Tulane, both
of which they have a shot in. A tough home game against Houston
follows, and a trip to Louisville. They should split these.
Two home games with Miami and UAB should find another split, before
closing with a much improved Memphis team and the eventual conference
champs, Southern Miss. Two wins in these four games would be a good
outcome.
To see what we said about the Cinci in the spring, click here: GO
East Carolina
Pirates
'99
record:
9-3 |
Coach:
Steve Logan |
Returning
Starters:
15 (9 Off., 6 Def.) |
The bright spot for the Pirates this season has to be that
offense. They get nine of their crew from '99 back, including
playmaker QB Garrard. And a substantial part of that solid OL. They
lose their best receiver, but Garrard should have plenty of talented
targets to choose from, as there were developing players last season who
should grow into the top spots easily.
The defense loses quite a bit, and this is their concern area. LB
Pernell Griffin comes back, and that will help. He was their biggest
force in the middle of that unit, and he'll be the focal point of the 'D'
this fall. The secondary was decimated by departures of everyone but
SS Adams. And field position is going to be another weakness, thanks
to the loss of All-American P Bayes.
ECU has a legitimate shot to win the conference, and possibly all of
their games this year. At this point, that would be projecting more
than is warranted, though. We have to see how the replacements
perform before anointing the Pirates as this year's Marshall or Va
Tech. We think they'll have a good shot at upsetting the visiting
Hokies (after winning the opener on the road at Duke) and Orangemen (after
beating Tulane) thanks in large part to their home field advantage in
those two games. 3-1 start is more likely. Then it's a road
game to Memphis, where we see the best chance for conference upset.
The Army, Louisville, UAB and Houston string should be four wins.
The trip to WVU should also produce a victory. The closer at
Southern Miss will determine the conference. What a great way to end
the season. Unfortunately, we give the Eagles the advantage, thanks
to home field. Win or lose, the Pirates will end up with a great
season and bowl trip.
To see what we said about ECU in the spring, click here: GO
Houston
Cougars
'99
record:
7-4 |
Coach:
Dana Dimel |
Returning
Starters:
10 (6 Off., 4 Def.) |
We liked RB Ketric Sanford a lot; in fact, we had him on several
All-CFFL Fantasy teams. He was a force for the
Cougars. They need to replace his numbers, and his on-field
presence. The passing game will have to pick up the slack --
enter, new coach Dana Dimel and his Wyoming one-back all-passing
attack. The
burden for operating this new offensive style falls on returning QB McKinley.
Fortunately, he gets WRs James and Iglesias back.
They should become conference stars (and fantasy values) right away, as this
will be the
conference's next premier passing team.
Defensively they lost a ton. That's a shame for Cougars
fans, because at season's end Houston had one of the better 'D'
units in the country, and they would have complemented the new
offense very well. Well enough to take the top spot away from
Southern Miss and ECU, perhaps. DB was the area most hurt,
losing all but one starter. The DL will have the burden of
putting extra pressure on QBs early, so they don't have the time to
pick on the new guys out in the backfield. They'll need
someone to step up and take charge of that defensive unit, and hope
that they can just keep teams in the 20's or low 30's, so the
offense has a shot at outscoring the other team. Dimel expects
LB Rogers to be that man.
Watch out for LSU, Rice and SMU, and of course, Texas. All
four could be losses for the Cougars as the Owls and Mustangs are much
stronger teams this year and LSU is always a wild card. Then
in conference there is East
Carolina, Memphis, and Cincinnati on the road. And they have
Southern Miss late in the year. Ouch.
Houston could be in for a long one this year. We think the game with Louisville at the
close of the season deciding who ends up above the other in the
middle-of-the-pack race in C-USA. We give Houston the edge.
To see what we said about the Cougars in the spring, click here: GO
Louisville Cardinals
'99
record:
7-5 |
Coach:
John L Smith |
Returning
Starters:
12 (5 Off., 7 Def.) |
How will Louisville replace Redman? Well, they won't.
they have to find offense somewhere else, instead of relying on his
arm 70% of the time (either directly, when throwing the ball or
indirectly, with teams keying their defense against his arm).
And RB Moreau now runs for the Kansas City Chiefs, and WR Lavell Boyd and TE Ibn Green are also
NFL-ers. So the other 30% of the offense, Moreau's legs, are
gone as well. Needless to say, expect a huge drop-off on the
offense. On the positive side, the OL returns much of its
talent, and WR Jackson is back. And the system is still there,
to work for whoever it is that tries to become the next Redman and
Moreau.
Defensively, Louisville loses a few solid players but should be
just fine. The line will be their strength, getting everyone
back, with LB Harris leading the LB troops behind them. The
secondary needs help, but looks adequate coming into the summer.
Louisville has a fairly easy non-conference schedule outside the loss
to FSU. They get Tulane, UAB and Army on the conference schedule,
which they may go 3-0 in. The Cinci game is a toss up. If they can pull of their season-ender against
Houston, they'll finish above them for the fifth spot; then there's
the chance of a home-split against the Pirates and Bearcats, which
would change everything.
To see what we said about the Cardinals in the spring, click here:
GO
Memphis
Tigers
'99
record:
5-6 |
Coach:
Rip Sherer |
Returning
Starters:
14 (5 Off., 9 Def.) |
These guys put together one of the most impressive defenses in the
country in '99. They were good enough to allow a lousy offense the
opportunity to beat Ole Miss (held them to three points, but shut out the
offense), Mississippi State (thirteen), and Tennessee (sixteen
points). They failed in each. So in those famous consolation
words, "They were seven points away from an 8-3 season. Toss in
the one point loss to Louisville (where the offense actually showed up)
and it's eight points from 9-2.
The best player on offense for the Tigers last season was sophomore PK Ryan White. They need to address
this. The RB and QB and WR positions are
question marks. Sanders is the best prospect at RB in a while
for the Tigers, and they'll need him to live up to his potential.
Their best receiving threat is Kendell, their TE. 'Nuff said there.
The Tiger defense could be the class of the conference
in 2000, thanks to returning nine of their starters. LB Kamal Shakir will be All-Conference. (Look for him on
Sundays next year, too.) Bell is a solid anchor for the DL,
and the whole secondary returns. Look for a repeat of last year from
these guys, plus some. Now, if the offense can be at least average,
the Tigers will have a fantastic year.
We give the Tigers an edge based on schedule, and put them into
the third spot in conference. If a couple of those near-misses
last season would have went Memphis's way we would be talking about them as giant killers. They get a rematch with
the Vols, on home turf. They get East Carolina, Houston, and Cincinnati at home as
well. the only tough conference game on the road is Southern
Miss. We see Memphis bowl-bound at the end of
2000. They should win 6 games easily, and a good showing
against Tennessee again this year will give them the media attention
and bowl organizers' confidence that is crucial for a bid. A
huge season is possible, if an offense develops. A win against Southern Miss and East
Carolina is possible.
To see what we said about Memphis in the spring, click here: GO
Southern
Mississippi Golden Eagles
'99
record:
9-3 |
Coach:
Jeff Bower |
Returning
Starters:
13 (6 Off., 7 Def.) |
'Defending C-USA Champions.' Eagles fans have to love the
sound of that. Of course, they have to face the fact that they
lost some of the stars that helped them earn that distinction.
Most
notable losses are the receiving duo of Gideon and Pinkston.
But they keep RB Nix and QB Kelly, who will be candidates for
all-conference honors at the end of the year. The OL
returns almost everyone, and gives the Eagles the foundation for
success again this year. Add the talents of new coaches no the
offense, bringing some of the Nevada playbook and some of the
Louisville nuances, and you have a team that is serious about
getting to the top.
The Eagles lose a few stars on the other side of the ball, but more
than
half of the defense returns. They should be strong again in
2000. They are perched to have another of their own
named conference Defensive Player of the Year. DE Cedric Scott
will be a force for the Eagles DL this fall. Reports out of USM
camp indicate that the DL and DBs are in top shape, leaving the LB
corps as the pivotal piece of the defensive puzzle. They have
only Magee returning, so he'll have to be a strong and consistent
leader on the field for that unit.
You have to love the A.D.'s around the country that put together
schedules like this one. Southern Miss is trying to make a
name for themselves nationally, and winning the C-USA title is the
first step. Next, however, you have to match up against some established teams, schools that have already made the jump into
the national spotlight. Enter road games to recent National
Champion Tennessee, SEC power Alabama, and the Big XII's
Oklahoma State. They won't win all of these (1-2 is likely)
but they do get attention and respect -- intangibles that developing
programs can't do without.
Add to that the good fortune of
getting East Carolina and Memphis at home and the schedule is
set for a good shot at a 2- or 3-loss season and a repeat of their
unbeaten conference run. The C-USA champion should be decided by the
outcome of their game with ECU, advantage going to the Eagles since it's a home game for them.
To see what we said about Southern Miss in the spring, click here:
GO
Tulane Green
Wave
'99
record:
3-8 |
Coach:
Chris Scelfo |
Returning
Starters:
17 (8 Off., 9 Def.) |
We learned our lesson last season, when we went on record as
saying that Tulane would have an off year but still be
competitive. We gave them the benefit of the doubt when
looking at the results of the '98 season, and thought that the
talent that came to Tulane after their undefeated season should be
enough to make the team a C-USA contender for the next couple of
seasons. We were wrong. Really wrong.
This year it is tempting to say that with the returning starters
and the tradition that comes with recently being undefeated, Tulane
will bounce back. We aren't falling for it again,
though. We ranked Tulane as cellar-dwellers at the start of
the 2000 season, and will wait to see what they do on the field
before we move them up. Spring practice was encouraging, but
we'll wait for the outcome of those first three non-conference games
before we'll consider changing our opinion of the Wave.
Tulane has to find someone to replace JaJuan Dawson (likely Adrian Burnette), who showed
last year that even on a horrible team there can be bright
spots. This year's bright spot won't be RB, after the Wave
lost three of their best players at the position to academics or
suspensions. Returning QB Patrick Ramsey has been tested by J.P.
Losman this spring, and the starting QB spot is still somewhat
questionable. That's a good thing for Tulane fans, though, since the
winner of that battle should be better prepared to bear the weight
of overcoming the points the 'D' will likely give up each
week.
The defense is in fair shape, and should actually be much improved
over last year thanks to the return of almost everyone. The
strength of the 2000 squad should be the front seven, with the DBs,
led by Joseph and Carter, needing to improve that pathetic pass
coverage they showed last season.
Tulane is the team best able to rocket up the standings in 2000. Potential is
only half the battle, though, as evidenced by their '99
record. Look for their early schedule to show how much the
team has recovered from last season and prepared for this one.
They start with two teams that should pound them, in Ole Miss and
ECU road games. Then it's a decent SMU squad and the
Bearcats. They may start 0-4 even if they play very
well. Southern Miss game follows a meeting with UL-Lafayette,
their best chance at a win thus far. The more manageable part of their schedule
follows (with Houston and Memphis at home) and four wins to close the season can be the
turn around Tulane fans have been waiting for.
To see what we said about Tulane in the spring, click here: GO
UAB Blazers
'99
record:
5-6 |
Coach:
Watson Brown |
Returning
Starters:
16 (8 Off., 8 Def.) |
We underestimated the Blazers last season. They finished with an
impressive 4-2 C-USA record. That return a large part of the offense
and defense from that squad, so you can expect them to challenge for a
repeat of that mark. It looks to us like 3-3 is the best they can
hope for with that schedule, though, and 2-4 is likely if the other teams
play to their potential.
The Blazers get RBs Percy Coleman and Carl Fair back for 2000, so
the running game will likely be their strength, and perhaps
crutch. The passing game will struggle until a receiver or two
steps up and claims the role of go-to guy. The whole OL
returns, which will make the offense all the more productive early
on.
Defensively UAB loses some stars, most notably star CB Rodgers, but
had the look this spring of
a team that has reloaded well enough. The front seven will be
crucial, as lost DBs will take some time to replace, and good
pressure up front will give them time to develop. They get
four players back who should produce there. The Kansas
game will be a good test, with their power running game.
Schedule is so-so. They open with a UT Chattanooga team they'll
beat, then face Kansas, who they should lose to. (This game is
counted as a C-USA game for UAB's purposes, to accommodate a scheduling
need that arose due to the seven- games-between-nine-teams
situation.) Then they face LSU and UL Lafayette teams, games they
should split. Louisville and
Memphis at home are key games. Good games here can change the face of the
conference. hey face ECU and Cinci on the road, then Southern
Miss. All three could easily be losses. Army closes the
season. They don't play Tulane, which in past years would
have been a good thing but in recent years, as Tulane struggles,
this is a possible Win that they miss out on.
If they can beat
Louisville at home early in the season, a 3-win conference record is
a lock, and 4 wins is realistic. Early games against Kansas and LSU
should tell us more about what kind of team UAB has this
season. Kansas is rebuilding and looks strong; LSU has the
wild card of a new coach and system and should enter the season on
an emotional high. If the Blazers can knock off one of these
two teams, scrap the preseason projections and watch how far the
momentum takes them into their conference schedule.
To see what we said about UAB in the spring, click here: GO
Predicted Finish
Here's how we see the season ending for the C-USA
| C-USA |
| Southern Miss (9-2, 7-0) |
|
East Carolina (9-2, 6-1) |
|
Memphis (7-4, 4-3) |
|
Houston
(6-5, 4-3) |
|
Cinci (6-5, 3-4) |
|
Louisville (6-5, 3-4) |
|
Tulane (6-5, 2-5) |
|
Army (6-5, 2-5) |
|
UAB (5-6, 2-5) |
|
|
C-USA title: Southern Miss
|
C-USA Schedule for 2000 season: GO
C-USA home page
|
|
|
