College Football News

Draft Tips for 2003

By John Horvath, FFWarroom, Contributing Writer for CFFL.com

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Drafting for Dummies: Preparing for a College Fantasy Draft

Preparing for a college fantasy draft is similar to getting ready for a NFL fantasy draft, except on a much larger scale.  If you hold to some variation of Value Based Drafting, you are at a bit of an advantage, because the principles are easy to apply to any fantasy league, regardless of the sport.  The one drawback to this is the sheer number of players involved.  Doing projections for the players on 117 Division 1A teams requires a time commitment few are able to give.  The Average Value Theory will definitely save you time for your NFL leagues, but applying the AVT to a college league is rather difficult because of the player turnover involved.

Developing a strategy for your college draft requires a few things:

1 - Know your player pool  Some leagues will use all Div1A teams, while others will use the power conferences or some other predetermined group of teams.  Basically, you need to get a good idea of how many quality guys there are at each position.  Make a list of 3000 yd passers, 2500 yd passers, QB who run, guys that throw for 30+ TD, 20+ TD, 1500 yd rushers, 1000 yd rushers, 1000 yd receivers, guys who score 15+ TD, 10+ TD, etc.  Just put the players in tiers for right now.

2 - Who is filling big shoes?  This is more of a corollary for #1.  Because of graduation and the NFL there is a lot of turnover in college football.  You need to be aware of new players, so you can take advantage of new stars.  It's important to remember that coaches usually recruit players to fit in their scheme.  Nebraska will always have a QB that can run.  As long as Mike Leach is in Lubbock, Texas Tech will throw the ball.  So when you see a guy like Kliff Kingsbury who threw for a bazillion yards last year, take note of his replacement.  He may not put up the same staggering numbers, but he'll be a product of the offense, and sometimes that's good enough.  So look for trends in college football.  A few come to mind - the QB at BYU usually puts up nice numbers.  So does the RB at Colorado.  Think about the guys who made a splash last year and look at their replacement.  There's bound to be a gem or two.  Some of these guys will be worthy of a high round pick, but the majority of them will be great gambles in the mid to late rounds.  As you're putting them into tiers, you should keep in mind a few things:

1 - Are they in a position battle, or have they already been named the starter?

2 - How many years have they been in the system?  (A QB who has been with the team for 2-3 years already is more likely to make an impact right away than a RS-Frosh.)

3 - How have they done in the spring game or in part-time duty?

4 - WR, RB, QB - That's your gambling order.  Take a WR at the top of the depth chart if he's got a good QB.  For RB, look at his offensive line.  How many returning starters?  For QB, don't gamble unless it's with a mid to late round pick.  Why not?  Depth.  There's a lot of QB depth, which we'll be talking about next.

3 - QB is the key  Pay particular attention to points for passing TD and passing yards.  This is critical for two things.  First, it helps you get an idea of what kind of QB is going to be valuable - the lower the pts for passing yards and TD, the more you want to look for a quarterback who can run.  It also will give you a better idea about the relative value between QB and RB/WR.  Another thing to look for - do players get points for return yards or return TD?  One last thing, look at how QB rushing yards are scored.  The yardage lost in sacks in the NFL gets taken out of the NFL team's, but not the individual player's, passing yards.  In college, if a QB gets sacked, it gets taken out of his rushing yards.  So it's very common to see a pocket passer with -100 or -200 net rushing yards for the year.  With standard scoring, that's 10-20 points!  Now go back and look at your tiers. Your RB and WR tiers will only need slight variation, moving a few players up (sometimes way up) because of their involvement in their team's return game.  Most of your time will be spent on QB.

Consider the following scoring system and two QB:  Pass TD - 3pts; Pass Yds - 1pt/30yds; INT - -2 pts; Rush/Rec. TD - 6pts; Rush/Rec. yds - 1pt/10yds

QB #1 - 4458 yds passing, 28 passing TD, 14 INT,  -185 yds rushing, 3 rushing TD

QB #2 - 1616 yds passing, 9 passing TD, 5 INT, 665 yds passing, 13 rushing TD

At first glance, QB #1 seems much more desirable.   QB #1 scored - 232.10 pts and QB #2 scored 224.37.  Not much of a difference.  Now look at the names - QB #1 is Cody Pickett (Washington) and QB #2 is Rasheed Marshall (West Virginia).  I can guarantee you that Pickett will go ahead of Marshall in most drafts not held in the state of West Virginia!  Yet their performance is very similar.  Passing on Pickett in the 2nd or 3rd round (depending on the size of the league) and picking up Marshall in round 8-10 would enable you to grab another top WR or RB and still not sacrifice much at QB. <I>Remember:  Since most people aren't as familiar with the players in college as they are with the NFL guys, name recognition will go a long way.  (Eli Manning, for example is a backup QB, at best, even in large leagues, yet his last name alone will get him drafted high.) </I>

If passing yds/TD are scored more closely to rushing and receiving yds/TD, the playing field is a leveled off a bit.  More than likely, though, they are not.  So what are you left with?  Well, this year, you've got 2-4 QB, depending on how you count, that are a notch above the rest.  If you grab one of them early, great.  If not, you're looking at 10 guys that make up tier 2 and another 10 that are just a step behind.

So, in review:

1- Make tiers based on last year’s stats.

2- Look at your scoring system and get a better idea of the value of a QB who runs. (and adjust for PR/KR if necessary)

3- Adjust your tiers.  Here is also where you’ll bump some players up or down, based on any hunches you have or information you’ve read – turning last year’s stats into a sort of pseudo-projection list.

4- Highlight guys near the top who you have never heard of.  (Chances are your competition hasn't either.  Even if they have, they're guys of great value who will be available lower than they should go.)

4 - Identify "magic numbers"  A quick look at last year's stats will tell you that 1000 yd rushers are pretty common.  Not so for 1500 yd guys.  What you're looking for here are 1500 yds and 15 TD.  Only three returning RB had those numbers last year - Stephen Jackson (Oregon St.), Darren Sproles (Kansas St.) and Michael Turner (Northern Illinois).   At WR, I'd be looking for 1200/12.  That leaves you with 5 - Reggie Williams (Washington), Rashaun Woods (Oklahoma St.), Mike Williams (USC), James Newson (Oregon St.), and John Standeford (Purdue).  (You probably should add Texas' Roy Williams to the list as he finished with 1142 and 12).  I don't know about you, but the names that stick out to me are Newson and Standeford.  Why?  Because they're less publicized.  <I>Remember, there are far fewer "guarantees" at WR than at any other position, but on the other hand, there are bound to be a few receivers that come out of the woodwork and put up decent numbers.</I>  So if you're not one to scan the box scores looking for gems, you probably should do whatever you can to get your hands on a good WR early in your draft.

If you've got a chance to get a guy with those "magic numbers" do it!  And always keep a close eye on how many quality WR are left on the board.  If you're in a bigger league (over 12) like mine, you shouldn't miss an opportunity to grab a solid receiver.

5 - Look at the schedule  In the NFL, every team plays 16 weeks and has one bye.  Not so in college.  My college league has a 10-week season followed by conference championships and then bowl week, for a total of 12 weeks.  In 2003, there are 3 Div1A teams that play all 12 weeks and two teams that have three bye weeks in that period.  If it comes down to similar point production between players on a team with no byes and a team with three, I'm going with the guy who can start for me every week. (Most teams have 1 or 2 weeks off in that period.)

You'll also find that most of your "big name" teams play a cream puff or two.  When you're picking team defenses, look for two defenses who play their cream puffs on alternating weeks.  There are always a couple of decent defenses whose schedules match up well, so you've always got one team playing a weak offense.

Be careful of your "small name" schools.  Don't just assume that because they don't play Ohio State or Miami this year, that the teams on their schedule have bad defenses.  A little research will keep you from making an important oversight.  On the other hand, I'd probably favor a schedule without Oklahoma on it over one with it.  Just do your homework.

6 - Go deep!  I already touched on this before, but it bears repeating.  Especially in your larger leagues get a long list of receivers.  A very long list.  This position is going to dry up before you know it and definitely before you thought it would.  So you had better either draft receivers in the first four rounds or make a good list (I'd make sure it's at least 6x the number of teams you've got in the league.)

Well, that's it!  Good luck with your draft!