PAC 10 Preview

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For more on these teams, see the 2000 Fantasy Info below.

For PAC 10 schedule in 2000: GO   |   For 2000 All-PAC Fantasy Team:  GO

Team Breakdowns:

Arizona | Arizona State | Cal | Oregon | Oregon State |  
Stanford | UCLA | USC  |  Washington  | Washington State 

PAC 10 in 2000

It's another one of those years where a PAC team looks like they have a chance to take advantage of returning talent and a  favorable schedule, and get to the BCS game.  If the fortunes of this year's version -- the Washington Huskies -- are similar to those of last year's -- the Arizona Wildcats -- then there are a whole lot of soon-to-be-depressed Huskies fans out there.  Arizona succumbed to the pressure of the expectations, and a series of stronger teams en route to a dismal 6-6 mark.  

We think Washington will avoid a fate like this.  Of course, we had Arizona going unbeaten last year, so what do we know?  We have learned, though, from our mistake last year, and are calling for Washington to have a fantastic season, but 'fantastic' measured in realistic terms -- 7-1 in conference, and only two losses overall.  If we're wrong this time, we'll at least be a few less games off...

Joining Washington as teams with high expectations are the Trojans and Beavers.  USC probably has the most talent in the conference, the Beavers have the momentum on their side as their team seems to be getting closer each season to recently acquired coach Dennis Erickson's projections of a PAC title in the short run.  Arizona State lost a ton of talent but seems to have done a good job of replacing it, and may actually be better this year. Oregon and UCLA will be good, and it's just a question of how good.  Similarly with Stanford, as the Cardinal can't count on getting all the breaks they got last year.  Cal and Washington State will likely battle against the odds and do better than many expect, but not as good as their fans hope.  It's still a development year for the program in both cases. Oh, and then there's Arizona.  They look like a better-than-.500 team, but who knows; we're going safe this year and counting on them to be good, but not great.

 Arizona Wildcats

Things aren't as rosy this preseason as they were last year.  But that may be for the best.  After being touted as a likely BCS candidate by many national publications (ourselves included), with thoughts of having both the national title and a Heisman on their mantle by the end of January, the Wildcats fell quite squarely on their faces.  A demeaning pounding in their opening game at the hands of Penn State, where their highly regarded offense was basically shut down, and their defense began its road to obscurity by barely showing up.  Arizona players and fans may be looking at the rather mediocre projections these same writers are offering for the 'Cats in 2000 as a blessing.

Expectations outside the program aside, the players themselves have some things to be optimistic about.  Part-time starter Ortege Jenkings gets the offense all to himself this season.  He loses quality wide out in Dennis Northcutt to the NFL, but gets youngster Bobby Wade back.  Wade has the speed and skills to make some things happen, if Jenkins get him the ball.  He'll have an excellent line to protect him, with four of his starters from '99 coming back, so time to throw should not be an issue.  When the Wildcats run, it will be a committee of backs taking the place of now-NFLer Trung Canidate.  Big shoes to fill, and Mills, Callen and Croom each hope to be able to fill them.   If they can do it as a tandem that will be fine for coach Tomey, as his offense needs to be the strength of this team, if there is going to be a strong team.  

This is due to a relatively weak returning defense.  Only four members of the '99 squad return, and the replacements haven't proven themselves worthy of the benefit of the doubt as yet in terms of this 'D' being a conference power.  The rebuilt 2000 version has Briggs and Nash coming over from the offense to help out (at LB and DB) and look to be in decent, if not great shape coming out of the spring.

The schedule isn't going to much help the Wildcats get a strong start, either.  They open with a trip to a strong Utah team and a visit from Ohio State, both of which could be losses.  Then it's a winnable game against the Aztecs before entering a PAC schedule that has them on the road against Washington, USC, Stanford and Oregon.  If they can manage a 2-1 nonconference schedule, they may have the momentum to get them a win over USC or Stanford to start the conference play.  If they can get out of October 3-2 in the PAC, they could finish above .500.  We think they have to beat Stanford on the road and pull an upset either at home or on the road to do this.  Better chances are that they will finish 4-4 in conference, and manage a 6-5 season.

To see what we said about Arizona in the spring, click here:  GO

Arizona State Sun Devils

They lost a lot to graduation or eligibility, including some prime NFL talent like DE Flowers and RB J R Redmond.  Filling these holes has been priority one for coach and his staff this offseason.  With Delvon Flowers returning at RB, they think they've solved that problem.  With some talent emerging on the DL they feel they're close to rebuilding that unit, but aren't there yet.  They get help from a solid LB crew, led by returning Archuleta and youngster Unck.  The secondary should be good, with good prospects to replace the lost corners and a solid corps of safeties returning from '99.

Then there are the losses they get during preseason and the regular season.  They've already lost QB Ryan Kealy, leaving that position as the biggest need area for the Sun Devils.  If they don't add any more significant names to that list of lost players, they can survive the season and live up to expectations.  If they lose anyone else, especially from the defense, look for a '99-Arizona-like belly flop from ASU.  Someone has to emerge as a capable replacement for Kealy, and then that guy has to hope capable replacements at receiver are found, too.  Right now, no names shine in that unit, but coaches are optimistic that a few in the talented group will step up.  At this point, it looks like the all-Flowers show for a while, and if the offense can take advantage of opposing defenses' tendency to stack up against Flowers and the run, they should be able to buy the time needed to gel and mature.  Before PAC competition starts, and things really get heated.

The schedule is favorable, and is much of the reason they will be rated as high as they are in many publications.  They don't have to play the Beavers or Trojans, and they get Washington and Oregon at home. Their nonconference play looks to have only one possible loss, to the Rams, but it's also at home so that may allow them a 3-0 sweep before getting into the conference battles.  Look for a 5-3 PAC record, if they can  solve the QB problem, and the defense shows up each Saturday.

To see what we said about the Sun Devils in the spring, click here:  GO

California Golden Bears 

The Bears get much of their offense back from '99, so spring practice could focus more on improvements than replacements.  They have a decent talent in QB Kyle Boller, good talent in RB Joe Igber, and a good looking OL.  So you can expect them to throw deep all the time, to their totally restocked receiving corps, right?  Well, of course not.  They'll run it, throw it short, and otherwise make life easier for their much maligned OL after a season where QBs were looking up  from the turf more often than down the field.  If receivers can develop -- JUCO transfer Margerum looking like the best prospect there -- and take advantage of the additional men in the box that defenses will likely utilize against the Bears, the offense could find a spark, and some balance.

That would suit the rebuilding defense just fine.  Yes, rebuilding.  The strength of the Bears in recent seasons is now a weakened crew, thanks to losing half of their starters and star CB O'Neal.  but they are nowhere near liability status. There is talent waiting in the wings, we've been told for a while, and now it's time to see if this is true.  If they have good replacements in the secondary, this unit will be a PAC power again.  the line is arguably the best in conference, with Carter and Waasdorp battling it out to see who is the best DL on the team, and maybe conference.  The LBs are a question, with part-time starters now needing to make that step up to full time, and team leaders on the field.  They are led by Segura and the healing Smith, and if they mature as a group and provide stability behind the line, it will be a better season than expected for the Bears.

The schedule looks formidable, with an opening trio of games against perhaps the best MWC team, a projected Big Ten power in Illinois, and a top WAC team in Fresno State.  No easy wins.  Then there's the PAC...  They get WSU, UCLA, and Stanford at home, and these will be good opportunities for wins.  They travel to Washington, USC, Oregon, and ASU, which are likely all losses.  So, it looks like a good season on the field, that will look a lot worse for the Bears in the books.  If they go 1-10 with this schedule, it won't be a surprise.  If the offense clicks early, and the defense plays anywhere near the level they showed in '99, they'll pull out at least one win before PAC games start, and they should win at least 2 in conference.  We're betting high on them, and going with that projection.

To see what we said about Cal in the spring, click here:  GO

Oregon Ducks

It's hard to make a positive projection for a team that loses more than half of its starters.  And that's the situation with the Ducks, who bring back just three starters on defense, and only half of the offense.  It gets easier, though, when much of your returning OL had some starting experience at least, and your returning QBs include two guys that each can lead the team, like Feely and Harrington.  Then you have great speed and skills at the receiver spot, with Howry and Tucker leading a group that has stars in the making coming in as freshman and sophomores as well.  Then your RB situation -- probably the biggest hole after the loss of excellent back Droughns -- gets the good fortune of landing someone like all-American JUCO RB Morris.  So I guess things aren't as bad as all that.  

Defensively, though, there are 8 starting spots to fill.  Eight.  They get Patu (DL), Smith (LB) and Bauman (DB) back for another year, and if these three can anchor their respective units the defense may surprise a few teams.  Bauman has to stay healthy, though, after missing last season with injuries.  the coaching staff is high on the progress of the defense as a whole, but when they are almost starting from scratch, it isn't hard to find things to be optimistic about.  SO we're still not sure how good a team this will be.

It seems that calling for a repeat of last year's 9-3 mark would be shooting high, with all of the turnover.  With games against Nevada and at Wisconsin to start the year, look for them to be 1-1 before meeting Idaho.  This game with the Vandals will be a great measuring stick for the talent on the Ducks team.  Idaho is stronger this year, and could take this one away from Oregon; advantage Ducks, though, with the home field advantage.  Then it's on to the PAC schedule, with home games against UCLA and Washington which they should go 1-1 in.  Then, a trio of tough road games at USC, ASU, and the finale at Oregon State, and home contest with Arizona, where they will be lucky to get two wins.  They have to beat WSU and Cal to make the season anything close to their '99 output.  Look for 5-3, and 7-4 overall as a conservative call. 

To see what we said about Oregon in the spring, click here:  GO

Oregon State Beavers

Opposed to their neighbors at OU, Oregon State get almost everyone back from last year's squad. And probably more importantly, the Beavers don't lose last year's offensive power at RB, in their case Ken Simonton.  Joining Simonton in the backfield is QB Jonathan Smith, coming off of another good year.  He has been tested by quality #2 guy House, but as for right now the job is his.  The OL is the bigger question here.  If they can replace departed strengths at the position, and at least get to an above average level in terms of the conference, the offense will be in great shape as these guys pave the way for all-American production from Simonton and give the QBs time to find stars in the making in that receiving corps.

Defensively the Beavers are solid at both the DL and DB spots.  The whole backfield returns, with Weathersby the name to watch there.  The DL is filling in for the lost tackles with a couple of players who were groomed for this job last season by Erickson's staff, so don't expect too much of a loss if any.  The LB crew won't have as much work to do because of this, and they'll have time to read holes to fill and pick up receivers in the slot and out of the backfield. 

The schedule sees three easy wins to open the season out of conference, before facing the two teams that challenge them for the PAC top spot, USC (home) and Washington (away).  If they can split these games, a conference title is in their reach.  The rest of the way they get Stanford and Oregon at home, so they have the advantage there.  They go to UCLA and Arizona, and these will be critical games.  Cal could play spoiler when they travel there.  It looks to us like a 6-2 conference run for the Beavers, at best; 5-3 is a better projection.  

To see what we said about the Beavers  in the spring, click here:  GO

Stanford Cardinal

The offense is without its big names from the pat two seasons, the Husak-to-Walters combo.  They'll need Borchard to have a stand out year to replace Husak, and are looking for big things from the returning DeRonnie Pitts at the receiver spot.  If the running game is going to be of any help, they'll have to have someone step up their production and make an impact early.  At this point, no star seems likely, so it'll be up to Borchard and Pitts.  The OL is rebuilding after losing all stars Cronshagen and McLaughlin, but they don't seem to be in too bad of shape.

Defensively the Cardinal are hurting outside the line positions.  The line returns almost everyone, and they will be the strength of the unit, led by probable all-American Howard.  The LB crew will be almost all new, with the returning Johnson to lead them.  Same with the backfield, with only Carter standing out as a true star in the making there.  They'll get scored on a lot, but hopefully the offense can step in and contribute with some big numbers on occasion and salvage their efforts.

Perhaps the most important return on the team is PK Biselli.  When the offense sputters somewhere near FG range, they'll give Biselli a shot to hit long ones.  And when they sputter in close, he won't miss many chances to convert the points.

The season starts with two games they can win, and then eight they very well could lose.  Then there's the Cal game, and who can project this game, ever.  (We went the sly way out, and projected records that had each of them winning it...)  Look for a 5-6 record, unless they pull off a season like '99, where every bounce seemed to go their way, and then give them a 7-4 finish.  

To see what we said about the Cardinal in the spring, click here:  GO

UCLA Bruins  

The Bruins have a few questions left over from the spring, most notably who will take the starting QB job.  It looks like Cory Paus will get it, unless he has a horrible summer.  If so, Ryan McCann will take the slot, and Paus will be a capable backup.  Either way, look for the Bruins to be a run-oriented team, as they have a superb back in RB DeShaun Foster.  That and a solid returning OL.  The offense will probably start slow, and develop as fast as the QB spot becomes clarified by production from the two candidates.  Once it does, look for the Bruins to go to the air more regularly, relying on their talented receiving corps to take some heat off of Foster and the running game.  These guys will make the quarterback's job a lot easier, whoever it ends up being.

Defensively the Bruins will survive on the strength of their front seven.  They're led by Coleman on the line, and the LB crew is strong all the way across as they get almost everyone back.  Look for White and Martin to get some good press from that unit.  The secondary loses some talent, but there wasn't much there to begin with.  This will be a key area of concern for the defense, as the PAC has plenty of pass-happy teams and this secondary will get beaten often.  It should all depend on the pressure up front, and with the talent the Bruins have there it could end up working out to be a decent year for the 'D.'

Overall, UCLA has a decent, but not great team.  They get tested immediately as the Tide come to town in the opener.  Then it's a decent Fresno State team, followed by Michigan.  As if that weren't bad enough, they have to go to Oregon to start the PAC schedule.  They get ASU at home and then travel to Cal, and these two games could determine the season for them.  Win both, and they should be in good position for a solid year; lose one -- or both -- and it's even more of an uphill battle than it is now.  On the good side, they finish with three of five games at home, but on the bad side two of them are Oregon State and USC.  They have to win one of these. Same with their two late road trips, to Arizona and Washington.  If not, it'll be a 3-5 conference schedule at best.  

As it stands, with the QB question still strong, and the defense seeming to be good but not great, we're calling for a 7-4 season (5-3 in conference) for the Bruins.  If things change for the better, they could upset the mix quite a bit, especially if they can pull off two wins against USC/UW/OSU.

To see what we said about UCLA in the spring, click here:  GO

USC Trojans  

It certainly paid off for coach Hackett.  He took a chance by playing mostly underclassmen last season on his defense, but now he gets everyone back -- well, ten, but that's close enough -- and he's looking at the best talent on that side of the ball in the conference.  If things go their way, they can even challenge for the top 'D' in the nation.

The unit is led by the one-two punch of LBs Zeke Moreno and Murkus Steele.  These guys will compete to smash more opposing ball carriers than the other, to snag that Butkus award each is in line for.  The line is strong with Davis and Nielsen plugging up the middle, leaving the tackles for the Ends and LBs to mop up. Teams shouldn't be able to throw against these guys easily, either, as that group may be the best in the conference by the end of the year.   They lose their best player, Simmons, to injury, but get JUCO transfer Chris Cash to step in and bolster the unit so they don't lose much.

Offense is where the Trojans will likely get the most press, though.  Their QB, Carson Palmer, has NFL scouts marking their calendars for next April, when they'll have a chance to grab him in the Draft.  That is, if the sophomore leaves that early.  He's huge, has nice touch, and will lead USC's offense by athletics and attitude.  He'll throw to potential all-American receiver Kareem Kelly enough to score often.  When he turns to hand the ball off, look for Sultan McCullough to get the call most often, and have his chance to show the coaches that the running game can keep up with the air attack.  The OL should be quite good, given that they return almost everyone.

All told, it should be a Rose Bowl season for USC.  Unless, that is, they drop a game in conference, and Washington manages to avoid this pitfall.  They don't play each other, so it could very well come down to tie breakers for the PAC title.  The one that may decide it is overall record, and USC has a slight edge there, with Penn State/Colorado/Notre Dame/San Jose State versus UW's Idaho/Miami/Colorado; each could easily lose one of these, with the Trojans having an opportunity to edge out the Huskies 3-1 to 2-1.  We think they'll each lose one in conference, simply because everyone always seems to lose at least once to this group.  We think USC will actually drop two nonconference games, though.  9-3 (7-1) will be a pretty good season for these guys.  

To see what we said about USC in the spring, click here:  GO

Washington Huskies  

Perhaps the most important part of this team will be youngster Paul Arnold, the sophomore RB.  If he is able to produce a good running attack to complement his QB's electrifying style and playmaking ability when he hands it over to Arnold, the Huskies will have an additional weapon for defenses to be concerned about.  And if he can master the role of picking up blitzes when Tuiasosopo drops back to throw, the air game will be much improved as well.

Of course, the clear pivotal piece to this offense is QB Marques Tuiasosopo.  Or, as could be said, the Michael Vick of the West.  He runs, scrambles, throws, keeps plays alive in his own particular way.  He needs to develop some constraint, though, if the team is going to be able to weather the storm of some bad quarters, and can't try too hard to make plays when taking a short loss will be the better option.  Coach Neuheisel has been working on this with him, and both seem confident that the job was a success.  If so, watch out Rose Bowl, because this offense is solid and the defense may be better than they were last year, if only by virtue of being under less pressure to save games.

The defense returns more than half of their starters, but more importantly they should have more points from their offensive counterparts to work with.  Teams should be down quite a few points often, and looking to throw.  That'll be fine for these guys, as the secondary is the strength of their 'D,' led by CB Anthony Vontoure.  The front seven is somewhat of a mystery, as the coaches are moving players around quite a bit in the spring and are looking for the right fit for everyone.  The unit wasn't impressive last year, so it can only get better.  If the offense is more disciplined, and lessens the amount of times the defense has a short field to defend by cutting down on turnovers, they will be much improved over '99.

The Huskies have a great talent at Kicker in John Anderson.  He'll make the difference in a couple of games this year, and challenge for all-American status.

The nonconference schedule is quite tough.  Idaho is no slouch this season, and will be a challenge.  Miami is everyone's pick to be the beast in the east again, and the only advantage for the Huskies is the fact that it's a home game.  Then a trip to Colorado, where Neuheisel will be far les than welcomed and the Buffs have the advantage of a chip on their shoulder for their old boss to go along with the home field advantage.  A 2-1 record out of conference would not be an embarrassment.  Then it's conference time.  There's no USC on the schedule, and that is a huge plus.  Oregon State plays at UW, the second big reason why a 7-1 season seems like a likelihood.  Look for the trip to Oregon or ASU to be the one stumbling point for this team, as they march through their conference play almost unscathed.  Overall, it looks like a 'Rosey' projection for the Huskies.

To see what we said about Washington in the spring, click here:  GO

Washington State Cougars   

We know it's not something that Cougars fans want to hear, but it looks like another year where the team is building toward 'next year.'  They have some developing talent, and look to be almost ready to compete with the best in the conference, but at this point most of their guys need some experience before they can move up to the next level.  

The offense has a potential star in RB Deon Burnette.  Aside from that, there isn't a whole lot to be too excited about.  returning QB Gesser is adequate, if he is fully recovered from his '99 injuries.  The receivers are still fighting it out to see who will earn a starting spot, always a bad sign when it's this late in the preseason.   They should be mediocre, and win games only if the breaks all go their way or the defense does some spectacular things.

That group needs some work to be able to make the leap to the next level.  They have a strong secondary, but teams won't have to throw much if they continue to have the ease with running the ball against WSU like they had last season.  The front seven is in rebuilding mode, but there is talent at LB in Holden.  If the rest of the crew can rally around him, they may get that spark they lacked in the previous season.

The outlook isn't great, but it isn't horrible either.  We see an 0-3 nonconference schedule in their immediate future, with two tough Big West teams in Idaho and Boise State, and a very strong Utah team.  The best chances for PAC wins seem like Stanford or ASU at home.  With the exception of an unexpected upset, it looks like a 1-win season in conference. We would project a better PAC record if it wasn't for the fact that most teams in the conference are on an 'up' year in 2000.  

To see what we said about the Cougars in the spring, click here:  GO