College Football News
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| Saturday,
July 19 2003 |
Tips for
Evaluating QB Talent for 2003
By
John Horvath, FFWarroom, Contributing Writer for CFFL.com
___
Evaluating the College Quarterback
In NFL leagues, we have the Stud RB
Theory, a widely espoused theory that says you have got to
grab a good RB right away, because there is little depth
at RB in the NFL. Some
take this even further and draft RB in the first 2-3 (or
sometimes more!) rounds of their draft, regardless of who
is there at other positions.
Since the emergence of College Fantasy Football (CFF)
I have heard some say that the Stud RB Theory does not
apply to the college game, because of the sheer depth at
the position. Instead,
they point to the lack of quality quarterbacks in college
and say that to win at CFF, one should adhere to the Stud
QB Theory.
The logic behind the Stud QB Theory
goes sort of like this:
1-
There is a shortage of quality QB in college
football.
2-
Since most teams do not have a solid QB, they are
forced to overemphasize the run in their offense.
3-
The overemphasis of the running game leads to an
abundance quality RB for your team.
All this means that you should grab a
QB early, since they good ones are harder to come by, and
grab a RB later on, because the depth at the position will
enable you to get a better one later in your draft.
Points two and three rely on point
one, and I intend to show that point one is not true.
Why do some claim that there is a
shortage of quality QB in college football?
Simply put – a lack of passing yards.
In 2002, only 26 QB passed for 3000 yds.
Of those 26, only 5 of them threw at least 30
touchdowns (In case you’re curious, the five were: Kliff
Kingsbury, Texas Tech; Byron Leftwich, Marshall; Carson
Palmer, USC; Ryan Schneider UCF; and Josh Fields, Oklahoma
State.) This 3000/30 club has few numbers every year, so you should
go out and grab one of the four quality QB while you can.
Here is the problem with such
reasoning:
First, it is easy to forget that not
every team plays the same number of games in college.
Becaue of this, end of the season stats are often
misread. Some teams play 11 games, others 12, 13 or even 14 games.
<b>You need to calculate stats on a per game
basis.</b> This
is an honest mistake.
Every NFL team plays 16 games, and seasonal NFL
statistics are kept separate from post-season statistics.
College ball is different.
A small chart will easily show the problem with
using cumulative yards, instead of yards per game (YPG) to
judge players.
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3000
yds
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3500
yds
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4000
yds
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games
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YPG
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games
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YPG
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games
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YPG
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10
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300
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10
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350
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10
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400
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11
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272.7273
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11
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318.1818
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11
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363.6364
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12
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250
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12
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291.6667
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12
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333.3333
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13
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230.7692
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13
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269.2308
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13
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307.6923
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So you really think the guy who threw
for 4000 yards in 13 games is <I>that</I> much
better than the guy who put up 3000 in 10?
Me, neither. But
I bet a handful of guys in your league are only looking at
cumulative stats.
Touchdown statistics can be just as
misleading as the yardage stats.
Here’s another chart that compares the fantasy
value of passing and rushing touchdowns.
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30 pass TD
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20 pass TD
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10 pass TD
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Rush
TD
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Pts.
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Rush
TD
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Pts.
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Rush
TD
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Pts.
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0
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120
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0
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80
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0
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40
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5
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150
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5
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110
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5
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70
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10
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180
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10
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140
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10
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100
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15
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210
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15
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170
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15
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130
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As you can see, 30 passing touchdowns
is not some magic number for fantasy stats.
It’s not just the gunslinger who you need to set
your sights on for your fantasy team.
The other mistake that the Stud QB
Theorists make is leaving rushing yards out of the
equation. My
league scores yards in the following way:
1pt/30 pass yds, 1pt/10 rush yds
As you can see, rushing yards are
worth 3x as much as passing yards.
And our scoring is fairly common.
So I took the Top 50 QB in total offense (pass yds
+ rush yds) from 2002 and sorted them by YPG.
(To keep the article a bit shorter, I’ll be using
all 50 in my spreadsheet, but only showing the Top 25.)
While I sorted them by YPG, I left the Total Yards
rank on the left as a reminder of how important it is to
get per game averages.
<I>Warning: I’m about to go
chart happy on you, but bear with me, because I’ll wrap
it up nicely for you at the end..</I>
<b>Top 25 Total Offense (2002),
sorted by YPG</b>
|
TO
Rank
|
Player
|
G
|
Rush
Yds
|
Pass
Yds
|
|
TOPG
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|
4
|
Byron
Leftwich, Marshall
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12
|
-1
|
4268
|
4267
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355.6
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1
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Kliff
Kingsbury, Texas Tech
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14
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-114
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5017
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4903
|
350.2
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3
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Cody
Pickett, Washington
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13
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-185
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4458
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4273
|
328.7
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2
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Timmy
Chang, Hawaii
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14
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-17
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4474
|
4457
|
318.4
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8
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Ryan
Schneider, Central Fla.
|
12
|
-89
|
3770
|
3681
|
306.8
|
|
11
|
Luke
McCown, Louisiana Tech
|
12
|
30
|
3539
|
3569
|
297.4
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|
12
|
Zack
Threadgill, Nevada
|
12
|
116
|
3418
|
3534
|
294.5
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6
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Carson
Palmer, USC
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13
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-122
|
3942
|
3820
|
293.8
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23
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Jose
Fuentes, Utah St.
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11
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-104
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3268
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3164
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287.6
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14
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Brad
Smith, Missouri
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12
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1029
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2333
|
3362
|
280.2
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16
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Casey
Bramlet, Wyoming
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12
|
35
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3290
|
3325
|
277.1
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5
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Brian
Jones, Toledo
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14
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414
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3446
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3860
|
275.7
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21
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Ben
Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio)
|
12
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-54
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3238
|
3184
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265.3
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24
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Josh
Harris, Bowling Green
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12
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737
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2425
|
3162
|
263.5
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7
|
Seneca
Wallace, Iowa St.
|
14
|
437
|
3245
|
3682
|
263
|
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35
|
Marquel
Blackwell, South Fla.
|
11
|
302
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2590
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2892
|
262.9
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25
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Adam
Hall, San Diego St.
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12
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-110
|
3253
|
3143
|
261.9
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9
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Andrew
Walter, Arizona St.
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14
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-216
|
3877
|
3661
|
261.5
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15
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Rex
Grossman, Florida
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13
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-65
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3402
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3337
|
256.7
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17
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Ken
Dorsey, Miami (Fla.)
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13
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-48
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3369
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3321
|
255.5
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10
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Gino
Guidugli, Cincinnati
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14
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27
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3543
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3570
|
255
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18
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Jason
Gesser, Washington St.
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13
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-116
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3408
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3292
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253.2
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19
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Eli
Manning, Mississippi
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13
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-120
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3401
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3281
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252.4
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20
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Scott
Rislov, San Jose St.
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13
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13
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3251
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3264
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251.1
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13
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Philip
Rivers, North Carolina St.
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14
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100
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3353
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3453
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246.6
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No doubt, you’ll notice that a few
rushing QB are on the list, but wait ‘til you see the
next chart. Speaking
of rushing yards, an important thing to know about the way
college statistics are kept is that yards lost through
sacks are taken out of a quarterback’s rushing yards,
meaning your less mobile QB are often left with negative
yards. (Be
sure to see how this is scored in your league!)
There is an awful lot in the next
chart.
Remember how I said that, in my
scoring system, rushing yards are worth 3x as much as
passing yards? I
factored that into the next chart by adding passing yards
to 3x rushing yards and then divided the total by games
played.
The yellow columns are the “Fantasy
YPG” and fantasy YPG rank, or “FYPG Rank”.
The blue columns are the “Fantasy
PPG” and fantasy PPG rank, or “FPPG Rank”.
<I>1pt/30yds passing; 1pt/10yds
rushing; 4 pts/TD passing; 6 pts/TD rushing</I>
I also kept the original Total
Offense Rank in there and added a rank by Fantasy YPG just
to show you the impact that misreading statistics can have
on your rankings.
Top 25 Fantasy Points per Game
(2002)</b>
|
TY
Rank
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FYPG
Rank
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FPPG
Rank
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Player
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G
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Rush
Yds
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Pass
Yds
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Total
Yds
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TOPG
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Fan
Yds
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FYPG
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Pass
TD
|
Rush
TD
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Fan
Pts
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Fan
PPG
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24
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3
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1
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Josh
Harris, Bowling Green
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12
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737
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2425
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3162
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263.5
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4636
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386.33
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19
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20
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350.5
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29.21
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1
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7
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2
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Kliff
Kingsbury, Texas Tech
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14
|
-114
|
5017
|
4903
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350.2
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4675
|
333.93
|
45
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2
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347.8
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24.85
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50
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4
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3
|
Bill
Whittemore, Kansas
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9
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549
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1666
|
2215
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246.1
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3313
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368.11
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11
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11
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220.4
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24.49
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14
|
1
|
4
|
Brad
Smith, Missouri
|
12
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1029
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2333
|
3362
|
280.2
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5420
|
451.67
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15
|
7
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282.7
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23.56
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4
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5
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5
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Byron
Leftwich, Marshall
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12
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-1
|
4268
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4267
|
355.6
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4265
|
355.42
|
30
|
3
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280.2
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23.35
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42
|
2
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6
|
Ell
Roberson, Kansas St.
|
12
|
1032
|
1580
|
2612
|
217.7
|
4676
|
389.67
|
7
|
16
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279.9
|
23.32
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|
6
|
20
|
7
|
Carson
Palmer, USC
|
13
|
-122
|
3942
|
3820
|
293.8
|
3576
|
275.08
|
33
|
4
|
275.2
|
21.17
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|
8
|
17
|
8
|
Ryan
Schneider, Central Fla.
|
12
|
-89
|
3770
|
3681
|
306.8
|
3503
|
291.92
|
31
|
2
|
252.8
|
21.06
|
|
32
|
16
|
9
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Brad
Banks, Iowa
|
13
|
423
|
2573
|
2996
|
230.5
|
3842
|
295.54
|
26
|
5
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262.1
|
20.16
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3
|
14
|
10
|
Cody
Pickett, Washington
|
13
|
-185
|
4458
|
4273
|
328.7
|
3903
|
300.23
|
28
|
3
|
260.1
|
20.01
|
|
16
|
18
|
11
|
Casey
Bramlet, Wyoming
|
12
|
35
|
3290
|
3325
|
277.1
|
3395
|
282.92
|
24
|
5
|
239.2
|
19.93
|
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5
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6
|
12
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Brian
Jones, Toledo
|
14
|
414
|
3446
|
3860
|
275.7
|
4688
|
334.86
|
23
|
5
|
278.3
|
19.88
|
|
35
|
9
|
13
|
Marquel
Blackwell, South Fla.
|
11
|
302
|
2590
|
2892
|
262.9
|
3496
|
317.82
|
18
|
5
|
218.5
|
19.87
|
|
22
|
12
|
14
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Rod
Rutherford, Pittsburgh
|
13
|
398
|
2783
|
3181
|
244.7
|
3977
|
305.92
|
22
|
6
|
256.6
|
19.74
|
|
12
|
11
|
15
|
Zack
Threadgill, Nevada
|
12
|
116
|
3418
|
3534
|
294.5
|
3766
|
313.83
|
26
|
1
|
235.5
|
19.63
|
|
13
|
24
|
16
|
Philip
Rivers, North Carolina St.
|
14
|
100
|
3353
|
3453
|
246.6
|
3653
|
260.93
|
20
|
10
|
261.8
|
18.7
|
|
7
|
8
|
17
|
Seneca
Wallace, Iowa St.
|
14
|
437
|
3245
|
3682
|
263
|
4556
|
325.43
|
15
|
8
|
259.9
|
18.56
|
|
30
|
41
|
18
|
Josh
Fields, Oklahoma St.
|
13
|
-72
|
3145
|
3073
|
236.4
|
2929
|
225.31
|
31
|
3
|
239.6
|
18.43
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2
|
10
|
19
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Timmy
Chang, Hawaii
|
14
|
-17
|
4474
|
4457
|
318.4
|
4423
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315.93
|
25
|
1
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253.4
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18.1
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39
|
45
|
20
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Kyle
Boller, California
|
12
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-83
|
2815
|
2732
|
227.7
|
2566
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213.83
|
28
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3
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215.5
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17.96
|
|
46
|
15
|
21
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Jason
Thomas, UNLV
|
11
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448
|
1936
|
2384
|
216.7
|
3280
|
298.18
|
8
|
9
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195.3
|
17.76
|
|
45
|
23
|
22
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Asad
Abdul-Khaliq, Minnesota
|
12
|
328
|
2184
|
2512
|
209.3
|
3168
|
264
|
19
|
5
|
211.6
|
17.63
|
|
11
|
13
|
23
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Luke
McCown, Louisiana Tech
|
12
|
30
|
3539
|
3569
|
297.4
|
3629
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302.42
|
19
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2
|
209
|
17.41
|
|
34
|
22
|
24
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Charlie
Frye, Akron
|
12
|
125
|
2824
|
2949
|
245.8
|
3199
|
266.58
|
15
|
7
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208.6
|
17.39
|
|
28
|
44
|
25
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Chris
Simms, Texas
|
13
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-124
|
3207
|
3083
|
237.2
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2835
|
218.08
|
26
|
4
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222.5
|
17.12
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Notice that Kansas QB Bill Whittemore
was actually the 3rd best QB, as far as fantasy
PPG are concerned. Yet
he was ranked only 50th in Total Offense!
Someone you don’t see on the list is Air Force QB
Chance Harridge. Harridge
should actually be at #2 on this list (1062 pass/1229
rush/4749 fantasy yds… 7 pass TD, 16 rush TD… 25.41
FPPG). So
your #2 QB in fantasy PPG isn’t even in the top 50 for
total offense!
So is there any truth to the Stud QB
Theory. Maybe.
That’s for another article.
But I can tell you that the reasons given to
support the Stud QB Theory are bogus.
There are plenty of QB out there that will put up
similar or better fantasy numbers than the famed
“3000/30 Club”.
The numbers are there.
Just don’t let them deceive you.
|
New
League types!