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College Fantasy Football:
Saturday's Will Never Be the Same Again
by David Gonos
of
FantasyRef.com
Email
him at Fantasyref@fantasyref.com
My
Saturday's use to consist of avoiding chores, watching bad 80s
movies and catching my Gators as they whipped [insert lesser team
here]. But all that's changed (Except for the "avoiding
chores" bit.) With
the help of College Fantasy Football, I have transformed my fall
weekends into one huge fantasy-fest, sans Lolita Davidovich.
Last year, I took up the relatively "new" fantasy
sport when I joined a league at CFFL.com, a fee-based site which
does a fantastic job of running college fantasy football leagues.
Stats, Rotowire player analysis and all. The following article breaks down what I learned and why.
More importantly, the following article is going to try to
convince you to take a dive into the wonderful world of college
fantasy football!
My
Background
I've
played fantasy sports of all sorts including football, baseball,
hockey, basketball and NASCAR for over 13 years.
I run a four-sport fantasy web-site that also hosts the PROFL
and The Dirty Dozen expert leagues.
With those credentials, I was invited to participate in the
very first CFFL Expert's League last season.
Expert is a very relative term in the fantasy world.
As an avid fantasy participant, I've learned how to recognize
certain trends, evaluate talent, understand systems and, finally, I
know how to research. And
since I write on my site and others, "expert" status is
thrust upon me. But by
no means, do I believe I can win any league I join, with or without
other "experts."
I realize I can't prepare for another owner's luck, only my
own.
Obstacles to Overcome For a CFF Rookie
1.
Opponents
Obviously,
entering a league at CFFL.com for $29.95
(mention FantasyRef and get a 10%discount!) means you most
likely are going up against Mel Kiper/Kirk Herbstreit clones sitting
in front of reels of game film...
OK, maybe not. But
you do have to expect them to be knowledgeable.
But, after this article, you'll know how to be as knowledgeable,
just without the experience.
2.
Your Knowledge
Don't
assume you know enough about college football... Get a magazine, then check the websites for late news on
players. Research as if
you know NOTHING about current college football teams, then base
your rankings off of that.
3.
117 Teams as Opposed to 32
In
the CFFL, we use all Division I teams as our drafting pool.
Some leagues only use the major conferences (Big 10, Big 12,
SEC, Big East, etc...), and some leagues like the ones suggested by
our friends at FantasyGms.com use only players on teams in the AP
Top 25 poll. But for
our purposes, we'll be talking about a D1-117 League.
No longer are you stuck drafting backups. No longer are you entirely screwed when your RB1 goes down in
week two. Although, you
do have to determine if a player throwing for 2500 yards in a season
is a high, average or low point.
(It's average.) But,
with this many teams, there are many more superstar QBs to go
around, and you HAVE to remember to judge them by other factors as
well (rushing, conference strength, returning teammates).
4.
The Troy Aikman Factor
In
the NFL, Aikman had long been considered one of the best QBs of his
generation. But in
fantasy terms, he was rarely good enough to start and was as
valuable as expired milk after jogging.
In college football, there are a ton of bigger national names
because of the teams they plan on and the exposure the get, yet,
they aren't even in the Top 20 for college players at their
position. (Most Notre
Dame players fit into this category.)
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5.
Information Super-Highway Has Few CFF Exits
There
aren't many places to get decent college fantasy football
information so I'll give you my quick list:
a. FantasyRef.com - We
usually rank them in mid-July, update them once or twice in August,
then we have a writer check in with weekly articles once the season
starts.
b.
CFFL.com - More rankings,
great service and nice bunch of guys.
Definitely worth the money. Or as their ad says, "More Fun Than a Dozen Drunk Cheerleaders!"
You can't beat that!
c.
FantasyGMs.com - Article
subscription site with great weekly NFL and College fantasy content.
Make sure you check these guys out.
d.
CollegeFootballNews.com -
I like to go here to check on current player news and catch some
articles by some very good writers on the sport today.
Also have CFF rankings and a couple articles for CFF.
e.
ESPN and CBS.Sportsline - These two are my favorites for checking up-to-date
news/scores/stats, no fantasy info.
f.
Rotowire.com - They're
pairing with CFFL.com this season for individual player analyses. You'll be in good hands.
6.
Beware of Outdated and/or Bad Information on the Net and in
Magazines
Since
there is not a lot of info, what is out there may not be the most
current info you need. An
injured player as your first round pick hurts.
Also, think about the information.
For instance, one site has the Top 50 Players Regardless of
Position. Don't mistake
this to mean, these should be the Top 50 Players drafted.
After all, they have 23 quarterbacks listed in their Top 50
Players overall! Before
you take your second QB in Round 2, fill out a couple of other
positions first... Just
a tip.
7.
Stud-RB Theory OUT THE DOOR!!!
In
NFL fantasy football, it's usually a smart idea to take a couple
stud RBs early on, and wait on the WRs and QBs.
There are a few reasons for this:
a.
With only 32 main RBs in the NFL, and with a starting roster
commitment of 24 (2 per team), you could be starting a bottom-third
RB if you aren't careful and wait too long.
Whereas there are usually two quality WRs per team to choose
from.
b.
Only 12 QBs start each week in fantasy NFL, so the 12th QB is much
closer in scoring to the 1st QB, than the 24th RB is to the 1st RB.
c.
An
RB is a scoring option for rushing and receiving, whereas a WR
usually only scores from receptions, and has to compete with other
WRs, a TE and even the RBs on their own team for receiving TDs.
OK,
now for the difference in college fantasy football, and why you
SHOULD NOT use the Stud-RB theory.
a.
With 117 teams, there is not the limited amount of RBs to choose
from, unlike the NFL.
b.
Like in high school, big colleges and small colleges are adept to
running more than passing because of lesser talent at the QB spot,
stronger pass defenses, and simpler offensive systems.
So this makes for more quality RBs with quality yardage.
Breaking Down the Superstar Stats
Here's
some statistical evidence to convince you that you don't HAVE to go
RB-RB in the first two rounds.
These stats are based off of the 2001 college football
season. We'll use 1000
yards and 10 TDs as a measuring stick for rushing and receiving, and
3000 yards and 25 TDs for passing.
No.
of RBs Over 1000 Yards Total:
57
No.
of WRs Over 1000 Yards Total:
24
No.
of QBs Over 3000 Yards Passing:
15
No.
of RBs with 10 or More TDs:
58
No.
of WRs with 10 or MoreTDs:
21
No.
of QBs with 25 or More TDs:
12
No.
of RBs Averaging 100 ypg Rushing:
30
No.
of WRs Averaging 100 ypg Receiving:
10
And
finally,
No.
of RBs with both 1000 yds and 10 TDs:
42
No.
of WRs with both 1000 yds and 10 TDs:
14
No.
of QBs with both 3000 yds and 25 TDs:
9
Stat
Analysis
So
what do these numbers mean to your chances of fielding a successful
CFF team? Like we said
earlier, running backs are in plenty supply.
Good RBs are the most easily attainable it seems with over 40
breaking the 1000 yard rushing and 10 TDs mark.
But, remember, you still have to start TWO, unlike QB, and
you want to have some decent backups.
As
far as Quarterbacks go, yes, they are the smallest numbers above.
But, again, you only start one QB, so even if you are one of
the teams waiting until the fifth or sixth round to grab a QB,
you'll still most likely grab a 3000 yard player with a shot at 25
TDs. Not far off at all
from the quarterback taken much earlier.
The
biggest surprise in all of this study has to be the dearth of
quality WRs in College Fantasy Football.
The RBs have double the
amount, and sometimes triple, of players in the "Golden"
scoring areas (1000 yds, 10 TDs).
College football is full of running teams, and you aren't
limited to only 32 teams like the NFL. Meanwhile, the passing games are only alive in a few teams
and conferences. A
quality QB and WR are needed, and as you could see in the numbers
above, those are few and far between.
My
final suggestion in summation is this: Do not kill yourself to get
RBs, but at the same rate, don't leave yourself without a group of
average backs even. Grab
TWO strong WRs early, maybe two within the first three rounds, along
with a RB. Quarterbacks
will be waiting for you, while the others spin their wheels trying
to find a decent No.1 WR, you are picking up a QB that is only
marginally less than the players they grabbed in the first and
second round.
For
specific player information, join us for the CFFL Expert League for
draft
pick analysis by owners from these fine sites:
CFFL.com, FantasyRef.com,
FantasyGMs.com, RedEyeSports.com
David Gonos is the editor and owner of FantasyRef.com,
a four-sport fantasy information site with rankings, articles
and advice. Some
have called him Dr. Gonos, just because he went
to college for nine years… Now
THAT’s a college fan!
Email
him at Fantasyref@fantasyref.com
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